# Research Manager, Prediction at Aaru

- Company: Aaru
- What the company does: Humans are unreliable narrators of their own behavior. Memory fails, incentives distort answers, and social pressure warps what people say away from what they actually do. Backed by General Catalyst, Felicis and Redpoint.
- Company website: https://aaru.com/
- Type: Startups
- Level: Senior
- Location: NYC
- Work setup: On-site
- Pay: $280K to $425K base salary per year (USD)
- Posted: 2026-08-22
- Apply by: 2026-10-08
- Apply: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/aaru/612df94e-8d73-44e7-9cb7-74f90459f7a7
- Page: https://www.1752.vc/careers/jobs/aaru-research-manager-prediction/

## About the role

As Prediction Research Manager, you will lead a focused team of Prediction Researchers and research engineers. You will translate Aaru's broader prediction agenda into a small number of important, testable workstreams and be accountable for the quality, pace, and practical impact of the team's research.

## What they're looking for

- A new method improves average error but becomes badly miscalibrated during rapid change. Determine whether to model drift explicitly, add time-dependent conditioning, change the objective, or abstain when evidence is weak
- A language-model agent produces persuasive forecasts but does not outperform a historical-rate baseline. Design the ablations that reveal whether retrieval, decomposition, tool use, or reasoning contributes actual signal
- Aggregate predictions are accurate while subgroup estimates are unstable. Identify whether the failure comes from sparse data, biased sampling, weak population representations, excessive decomposition, or invalid evaluation
- A customer asks about a novel event with little direct historical precedent. Determine what adjacent evidence is transferable, how much uncertainty is irreducible, and whether a conditional scenario model can be validated honestly
- A method backtests well but fails prospectively. Investigate temporal leakage, benchmark selection, outcome revisions, implicit access to future information, and changes in the data-generating process
- Direct prediction and explicit population simulation disagree materially. Build a comparison that determines which representation, assumptions, and error sources explain the gap

Tags: Technical Staff